Fenoflare

The Markov-Switching Multifractal Musica Mundana Solar Flare Now-Cast

William Blake's The Ancient of Days: a white-bearded figure crouched inside a golden sun, reaching down into darkness with a pair of compasses (Europe a Prophecy, copy K, plate one; public domain).
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chance of at least one M-class solar flare in the next 24 hours

— · issued for —

X-class —

chance of at least one X-class flare in the same window, read from the belief of the count-only filter — the one that made this site's forecast before it began reading the Sun's active regions, kept running beside it for this tile alone (sealed record v50) — shown for context, never scored on the ledger. That belief carries X-relevant information only through the rate: its M-class rate, thinned by one constant flare-level X fraction, reproduces this read-out's skill, and the calibrated paired difference between the two covers zero (sealed record v52).

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Audio is off. Everything the forecast says is written above — turning sound on adds nothing you need to read the forecast.

The running score

Live, this repository's own measurement, recomputed from the committed ledger every time this page is built.

Resolved days
4
Verified M-class days
0
Observed base rate
0.000
Brier score
0.094

Too few days for a skill score. A skill score divides by a reference Brier estimated from the same handful of days, so on a short board it measures which days happened to land in the sample rather than the forecast. This page prints no skill score — against climatology, against persistence, or against anything else — until the board reaches its minimum of thirty resolved days. The count, the hits, the base rate and the Brier above are the whole of what a board this short can honestly say.

See the full skill ledger